The impending climatic phenomenon, which has been intensifying since October, threatens to reduce rice yields and cause water shortages in various regions.
Thailand is preparing for a serious climatic phenomenon: a Super El Niño is expected to intensify in the Kingdom this October and is forecast to last until the start of the 2027 rainy season. This powerful climatic cycle will significantly affect crops, particularly rice plantations, as well as the country’s overall water supply and consumption. The Royal Thai Meteorological Department has warned of a possible rainfall reduction of at least 10 per cent, highlighting the need for increased awareness and preparedness among citizens and officials.
What is a Super El Niño?
A Super El Niño is an exceptionally strong warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterised by a significant rise in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean compared to normal levels. Surapong Sarapa, Director of the Weather Forecasting Division at the Thai Meteorological Department, reported that the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an 81 per cent probability of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December this year. This event could be the most powerful since 1950.
Timeline and Intensification of the Phenomenon
The Super El Niño is expected to begin weakening by early 2027, gradually transitioning into a moderate El Niño phase. By the end of that year, forecasts suggest that weather conditions will shift to La Niña – the cool phase of ENSO. Thailand has previously experienced Super El Niño events in 1997–1998 and 2015–2016. However, Surapong Sarapa emphasises that the impacts are expected to be more severe this year due to ongoing climate change, as global temperatures have already risen by approximately 2 °C, exceeding the thresholds set by international agreements to limit global warming.
Changes in rainfall patterns
Thailand is likely to face less of an overall reduction in rainfall than a significant change in its patterns. Longer dry spells are forecast, which will reduce the number of rainy days, whilst rainfall will be concentrated in specific areas. In addition, heavy downpours are expected during the dry season, along with more frequent ‘rain bombs’ – intense, short-lived bursts of rainfall.
‘Changes in the pattern of rainfall are a consequence of rising global temperatures. As a tropical country, we may not experience significantly hotter conditions, but we will face serious changes in rainfall patterns. We need plans to mitigate the impacts and strengthen water security,’ said Surapong Sarapa, underscoring the importance of understanding climate change impacts for effective planning and response.
Impact on reservoirs and agriculture
Surapong Sarapa expressed concern about the limited capacity of reservoirs to store water, as forecasts indicate most rainfall will fall in border areas. Consequently, border provinces are likely to receive sufficient water, whilst inland regions may face drought. The four largest dams supplying water to the Central Plain are expected to maintain sufficient water levels in August and September. Still, their total storage volume is forecast to be approximately 10 per cent lower than during the same period last year.
Tanes Sombun, a spokesperson for the Royal Department of Irrigation and head of the Smart Water Resources Management Centre, warned that a severe drought is likely to reduce second-crop rice production next year due to water shortages. Production is expected to fall by around 20 per cent. In response, the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives has developed an ‘alternate wetting and drying’ system for rice cultivation to conserve water. Tanes Sombun also noted that seasonal rice grown in irrigated areas will not face water shortages, as it will rely on water released from reservoirs.
Water management strategies
According to the department’s plan, 9.49 billion cubic metres of water have been allocated for domestic use, agriculture, ecosystems and industry. A further 5.46 billion cubic metres will be released, bringing the total planned water supply for the rainy season to 14.956 billion cubic metres, demonstrating the need for strategic water management to ensure resource availability during the climatic event.
“This month, we have released more water to support farmers. However, next month we will reduce the release to preserve reserves for the dry season, when water demand may rise by 20 per cent,” concluded Thanes Sombun. These measures underscore the authorities’ commitment to minimising the negative impact of the anticipated climatic event on the welfare of the Kingdom and its citizens.
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